Some Hondo
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What the Data Says About My Trading

I’ve been trading /ES and /GC futures for a while now, and I recently went deep on my trade data. After looking at 400+ trades across multiple accounts, some patterns are impossible to ignore.

The Edge Is Speed

My win rate by trade duration tells the whole story:

  • Under 2 minutes: 78-85% win rate
  • 2-5 minutes: 62% win rate
  • 5-10 minutes: 32% win rate

The longer I hold, the worse I do. My best trading happens when I read the momentum, get in, and get out. When I start holding and hoping, the numbers fall apart.

This isn’t a strategy problem—it’s an execution problem. I’m good at the initial read. I’m bad at managing trades that don’t work immediately.

More Trades ≠ More Money

In November, I had days with 12-16 trades that made $1,000+. I also had days with 70-120 trades that made $150-170.

The math is clear: my best days come from fewer, higher-conviction trades. When I’m grinding out trade after trade, I’m usually forcing setups that aren’t there.

The outliers prove it:

  • Best day: $1,251 on 12 trades ($104/trade)
  • Worst productive day: $169 on 124 trades ($1.36/trade)

Same trader, same market, completely different results based on selectivity.

Red Days Have Patterns

I’ve only had two red days recently:

  1. -$243 on 1 trade — Sized up on a low-liquidity day (Thanksgiving week). One mistake, significant damage.
  2. -$76 on 13 trades — Death by a thousand cuts. Kept trading when the setups weren’t there.

The first was a risk management failure. The second was a discipline failure. Both are fixable.

What I’m Doing About It

Based on the data, I’ve set some rules:

  1. If a trade isn’t working in 2 minutes, cut it. My edge doesn’t exist past that window.
  2. Cap daily trades at 20. If I hit 20 and I’m not up meaningfully, I’m done. No grinding.
  3. No trading on thin liquidity days. The one-trade blowup taught me that lesson.
  4. Track why I’m holding. If I’m in a trade past 2 minutes, I need to write down why. “Hoping it comes back” isn’t a valid reason.

The Results So Far

November: $4,806 profit across two accounts December (first 2 days): $1,111 on a new funded account

The edge is there. The data proves it. Now it’s about protecting it with discipline.

Trading isn’t about being right all the time. It’s about knowing exactly where you’re right, doing more of that, and cutting everything else.